Fame
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IMDB rating: 4.20 Plot: An updated version of the 1980 musical, which centered on the students of the New York Academy of Performing Arts. |
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Are Sabermetrics good or bad for baseball?
I’m pretty content with the basic stats in baseball, when determining who is a great, good, or bad player. Baseball is indeed a game of numbers, and there’s no argument with that. However, I see the game going into a new direction. WAR, UZR, BABIP, etc are now being more regarded in the sport. I have a problem with that, because these stats are not always telling. For instance, Keith Law is advocate of Sabermetrics, and because of this, he completely left Chris Carpenter off of his ballot for the Cy Young Award. Mind you, Chris had 17 wins (2nd highest) with a 2.24 ERA (Led the league). So why did he leave Chris off of his ballot? FIP, WAR, VORP. He also stated that because Chris had a better defense than Tim Lincecum, that made it easy on him to make pitches. Who did he replace him with? Javier Vazquez. Keith was the only one to do this. Chris had to make the pitches, not his defense, and I believe he shouldn’t be excluded from a well deserving award based on that, to be replaced by someone who clearly wasn’t better.
Sabermetricians also didn’t feel it was right for Andre Dawson to be inducted into the Hall of Fame. Why? Because of his OBP. Yes, Andre was going to be kept out of the HOF for being an aggressive batter. I suppose the more patient you are, the greater the player. Luis Castillo was amongst the leaders in this particular category. Does that imply he’s the best player in the league?
Hey, some Sabermetrical stats may work, and that’s cool. My argument is that we shouldn’t base the game solely on it. It’s not 100% accurate, and it’s really not fun. Whatever happen to enjoying baseball?
I hate them.
I hate how people think they can determine the worth of a player by ONE stat (WAR).
I like to look at different aspects at the game and say, "well, a player is good here, but not here."
But I hate how people can say that one player is better than another BECAUSE of WAR,
Twinstripes, not Pinstripes! | Feb 05, 2010
Its bad for baseball. Its ridiculous to have this many stats. Like whats this players batting average against left handed pitchers named steve on a cloudy day with the DH in the lineup?
Stick187 | Feb 05, 2010
Unless you want the largest teams to always win then yes Sabermetrics is the way to go!
Teams like the A’s competed for nearly a decade, with payroll far below what they had to compete against. That is only possible if a GM and a large staff of nerds sits around and plays with numbers! As a fan I ignore the sabermetrics, because they aren’t relevant to individual plays made in individual games. Classic stats, HR, RBI’s, Batting ave., ERA, K’s much easier to understand and can be seen to directly impact the outcomes of games.
JimBob | Feb 05, 2010
I don’t pay much attention to them. Hit for average, show some pop, run the bases,make good pitches in critical situations, and play good defense. That is usually all I need.
jonds | Feb 05, 2010
There are certain things that are great with Sabermatrics - one thing that I think is important and always got overlooked was on base percentage. Since Walks are a major componant of OBP, it was a stat that was overlooked. Sabermatrics is a HUGE supporter of OBP, so I like that part. Walks are an important part of baseball - also it doesn’t show up in someone’s average or "hits" stat. So, there are somethings that are good and if you notices, guys with high OBP and low averages always seems to be "steals" when it comes to contract time. You can a 1 or 2 hitter for a discount but because they walk so much they are base.
Now here is what I hate about this system. Lets go back to the 1983 and 1984 St. Louis Cardinals. That team had a lot of speedy on base guys and one big bopper in the middle named Jack Clark. Now Jack Clark isn’t going to be confused with Babe Ruth but let me tell you something, he scared the daylights out of every manager when he was in the lineup. Now Sabermatrics probably wouldn’t of had Jack Clark has an important player BUT he was the perfect player for that team. He had the right temperment, the right attitude and the ego to play for that team. Also, on the 1986 NY Mets, where do you think Ray Knight would of fit in on Sabermatrics but you know what - he was perfect for that team.
I think it’s instances like these where simple numbers don’t apply and if you were a follower of Sabermatrics would hurt your team. As far as pitching goes, it’s real simple - throw strikes. That’s the key for pitching. If I can find a guy who can throw 88 to 94 as a right-hander and can throw strikes with different speeds - I’d take him over a guy who has no control and throws 95 and over. With Lefties - give me a guy who can throw different speeds from 83 to 90 and I’d take him over a 93 mph wildman (now, I would look at the 93 mph later on his career - as lefties tend only get control when they are older).
By the way - Luis Castillo isn’t the player he once was but if healthy - he’s a productive player. Luis Castillo is one the best number 2 hitters in the history of baseball and before you laugh, look at the success the teams he’s played for have. He’s a tremendous bunter to boot and he used to steal a lot of bases. Would I want 8 Luis Castillo’s, no - but for what he’s supposed to do - he’s good.
That’s one of the things that is misunderstood by a lot of baseball fans (and you can almost spot the baseball fan who never played beyond Little League) is that a great team doesn’t need great players. What’s important for a great team is to have players who know what there role is. I mean you have a guy on the bench who’s job it is to come in and pinch hit - that’s a hard job and there are a lot of "super-stars" who can’t do that - If that guys does his job right, he’s a tremendous asset to the team. Just like the LF who hits clean up has a job to get the RBI - doesn’t necessarily have to hit a HR at every at bat but to get the runner in from third. The Leadoff man’s job is to get on base and cause havoc on the basepaths - that’s an important job - how many leadoff men do you know through history that falls in love with the long ball and no longer are successful lead off guys (generally they don’t stay in the Major Leagues that long). There was only one Ricky Henderson - and Ricky Henderson was an absolultely wonderful great super dynamite incredible baseball player - I can’t think of any other words - truely spectacular.
I mean managing and "making a team up" is not as easy as paying the for best players. It’s the same with Sabermetrics, you can’t tell what’s the make up of a player is just by reading some numbers. Baseball will always be about the players and about "team".
While Chris Carpenter had a great year but I think Timmy Lincecum is the nasty pitcher out there. Can you imagine how many games Lincecum would of won with a lineup like the Cardinals. Before you kill me on this (and you really can’t - Lincecum did win the Cy Young again) - take a look at San Francisco’s lineup - it’s brutally bad. I couldn’t believe the Giants were even in the race in August and you know what, had they made the playoffs - I had them beating whoever they were going to play in the 1st round. That pitching staff is awesome - well awesome may be a little strong Lincecum, Cain and a halfway decent Zito. I would love to have one more hard thrower on that starting rotation - I would put Zito in the 2 spot - Lincecum, Zito, Cain and then hard thrower - not that Zito is better then Cain but it could cause some issues with a team that had to face those 3 guys in a series. You can have lots of fun as a manager when you have 2 young studs and crafy old lefty - too bad Randy Johnson didn’t have any juice left - even the 39 Randy Johnson would be fun to watch on that staff. Not to talk to much about the SF Giants (I’m not even a fan of the Giants but I like Timmy) but could you imagine t
Mike D | Feb 05, 2010
when it gets ridiculously confusing how they managed to find the number i hate it. but things like OBP OBS, stats that make sense, i like it
brendan y. | Feb 05, 2010
Your question doesn’t really make much sense. It’s like asking "Is batting average good for baseball"? Sabermetric stats are just numbers. When used properly they can be good tools to evaluate players along with traditional stats and observatiion. Some sabermetric stat formulas are flawed just as things like pitcher wins are flawed. That is why I think you should use all stats at your disposal when trying to evaluate players.
To me it’s idiotic to completely ignore "new stats" and assume they tell you nothing about a player. It’s also idiotic to be so focused on a "flavor of the month" new stat that you ignore other very valid information from more traditional stats and scouting. Stats, both old and new, are just tools. Smart people use all the tools at their disposal.
So I agree with your last statement that we shouldn’t base things on sabermetric stats 100% but I do think they add a lot to the discussion and it’s foolish to ignore them entirely.
Michael Q | Feb 05, 2010
I find the sabermetrics movement to be disturbing. Yes, I do like the "OPS" stat. A good OPS means that a guy is hitting for a combination of average, power, getting on base, and producing runs. I also like WHIP, it’s not hard to understand that a low WHIP means that a pitcher is letting relatively few runners reach base per nine innings. I think many of these sabermetric stats are too abstract (no pun intended), for the average fan to follow.
I am not a Keith Law fan, and I am not a fan of sportswriters letting sabermetrics determine who they vote for. Sabermetrics does not measure a player’s heart. Here’s an example. A pitcher may dominate a game and shut out a team for 7 innings. He is taken out after 100 pitches, his WHIP and ERA will improve. Another great pitcher like C.C. Sabathia will shut out a team for 7 innings, but stay in the game to save the bullpen and give up 2 or 3 late runs. His line won’t look as impressive as it could have.
Sorry, but sabermetricians seem to have been brainwashed. They are only looking at ridiculous stats, just numbers on paper. To think that these nerds actually let these confusing stats make up their minds for them is absurd. This is a game for the fans, not for sportswriters to use formulas to determine the winners of major awards.
You mention Andre Dawson, I will give you another example. Peter Gammons, who once was a great baseball writer felt that Tim Raines should be in the Hall. One of his reasons? "Raines’ OPS in 1985 was .880". Seriously.
Jeffrey S | Feb 05, 2010
I refuse to accept that statistical analysis of this great game peaked in the 1880s.
Having more information is a good thing. That’s not to say that all the many things available are useful or insightful or bring greater understanding — but many do, and others tend to be new and in need of refinement.
I know a few diehard sabermetricians and read several others, and invariably every one of them has expressed that their appreciation of baseball DEEPENED based on their new learnings and research.
Not to worry, RBI and batting average are still readily available. I give them the merest glimpse before moving on to the interesting stuff — because those stats no longer tell me nearly enough. I’m much happier jumping into the deep end of the stats pool.
And I’m even happier when I’m watching or listening to a game.
Better analysis is a good thing, yes.
———-
Dan Duquette had any number of failings, but being "old school" when it came to statistical evaluation of players was not one of them.
Chipmaker | Feb 05, 2010
This is the most ignorant thing I’ve ever read in my life, congrats.
I’ll address it all. Cause I am bored.
1) Keith Law left Carpenter off the ballot for a number of reasons. FIP factored in. Also a factor was that he didn’t even pitch 200 innings (something the other 4 did), a .274 BABIP v. a career mark of .301 (which leads one to believe that defense helped Carpenter more than most pitchers), and the fact that there were only 3 spots on the ballot. Congrats for discrediting Haren and Vasquez. Carpenter would’ve lost anyway. Verlander also got a 1st place vote in the AL, why aren’t you attacking that voter?
How we he "clearly" not better? FIP is a better predictor of future ERA than current ERA. I’m not even agreeing that Law was right, but your argument is baseless and wrathful.
2) You act like everyone agreed that Dawson didn’t belong. Not true. I voiced support for Dawson as a power hitting, good defensive CF in the 80’s. But hey, that OBP, it was a problem. It meant he made a lot of outs. And his teams that centered themselves around him, well, they weren’t very good. Partly because he made a lot of outs.
3) No one thinks Luis Castillo is one of the best players in the league. But he’s good at not making outs. That’s valuable. How is that a hard concept to grasp? Team OBP is a far better predictor of team runs than team Batting Average.
4) There’s a reason why SABRmetrics are growing in popularity. Because they work. The A’s built 100+ game winners for decades using SABRmetric principles, and giving guys like Mark McGwire chances even though their batting average wasn’t that good. The Red Sox fired old school guys like Dan Duquette, brought in Theo Epstein, and won 2 WS. The Rays brought in an investment analyst, and won the AL Pennant. Pretty much every team employs research analysts now, and the ones that don’t, end up like the Royals / Astros.
5) Most importantly, SHUT THE FUCK UP. I take exception to that. I enjoy baseball plenty. And no shit it’s not 100% accurate. STATISTICS ARE NOT 100% ACCURATE. STAT 101 IN COLLEGE. So how about you quit acting like an idiot and claim that stat geeks don’t care about players while simultaneously bashing a guy like Luis Castillo so you can give your point a strawman. But then again, anyone who can’t understand standard errors on player value (and thinks OBP and defensive effects on pitching statistics is advanced) probably won’t grasp that, either.
PS: Mike, one point. While your post isn’t controversial, what the hell are you talking about with Jack Clark? The man was awesome when he was healthy while on St. Louis.
PPS: Hey Jeff S. I’m going to list two players for you.
Player A:
.294/.385/.425 (league average in his day .263/.331/.398), 170 HR, 808 SB, 84.7% success rate, 2 WS rings
Player B:
.293/.343/.410 (league average in era .264/.330/.390), 149 HR, 938 SB, 75.3% success rate, 2 WS rings.
Player A is Tim Raines. Player B is…1st ballot Hall of Famer Lou Brock.
I dare you, DARE YOU, to argue the fairness of that. Their AVG+, OBP+, and SLG+ lines are 112/116/107 for Raines, and 111/104/105 for Brock. Brock was better at NOTHING vs. Raines except for getting thrown out on the basepaths (if Raines had gone 130 for 291 extra SB attempts, he would have the exact same SB/CS ratio. Enjoy that 44.7% success rate). Sorry Gammo had to dumb things down for you so maybe you’d understand it. And Sorry Raines didn’t play his peak years in New York, where he’d be lauded over and in the Hall of Fame already. Try reading something: http://www.raines30.com
jdr0317 | Feb 05, 2010
Wayne Rodriquez